Tuesday 31st March
162ND JOHN SMITHS GRAND NATIONAL.
The Grand National is on Saturday and here I will be looking at the trends of previous winners, the chances of the main contenders in the betting and more importantly my selection(s).
The "National" is 4 miles and 4 furlongs in distance the longest staying handicap race in the World, run over 30 fences and up to 40 runners its not a race for the faint-hearted.
Though the race is a gruelling 4 miles plus an out and out stayer is not essentially required, for the first circuit they generally hunt round to get a good position, avoid early trouble and get the horses into a nice jumping rythmn, so on this basis...horses previously with form only from 2-3 miles should not be discounted-though you would not want to run a 2 mile chaser in such a race(Crisp aside).
Four of the last five winners of this race have all carried under 11st,The exception being HedgeHunter who carried 11-1 to victory in 2005, This would pinpoint to a selection under the 11-1 mark...so on this basis we have theoretically just wiped the chances of 13 horses including the current favourite "My Will" and last year's winner "Comply Or Die" I am happy to do this-but before I do will put up "Eurotrek" returning from a 721 day to run a big race.
So with 13 of the 40 horses already dismissed makes life a little easier, the next trend being the last 5 winners all finished in the first five of there previous outing, the last four in fact all placed or won, This then rules out another 14 horses...leaving us with just 13 of the original line up left.
I will automatically rule out Zabenz coming back from layoff and now 12 years of age so the list is now 12.
These are:- Current odds(Bet365) at Tuesday 31st March 17.30
14: Big Fella Thanks 22/1
17: Butlers Cabin 10/1
18: Offshore Account 33/1
23: L'ami 20/1
28: Cant Buy Time 50/1
29: Darkness 20/1
30: Irish Invader 16/1
31: Rambling Minster 10/1
32: Southern Vic 22/1
33: Kilbeggan Blade 20/1
34: Brooklyn Brownie 33/1
38: Idle Talk 66/1
Now the next trend is only 1 Winner in the last 15 years has been under the age of nine(Bindaree 2002 aged 8)....So theres goes the two seven years olds "Big Fella Thanks" And "Cant Buy Time" and the eight year old "Irish Invader". Idle Talk hasnt won for over 3 years so im happy to lose him too, Which leaves us with the final 8 Selections.
14: Big Fella Thanks 22/1
17: Butlers Cabin 10/1
18: Offshore Account 33/1
23: L'ami 20/1
28: Cant Buy Time 50/1
29: Darkness 20/1
30: Irish Invader 16/1
31: Rambling Minster 10/1
32: Southern Vic 22/1
33: Kilbeggan Blade 20/1
34: Brooklyn Brownie 33/1
38: Idle Talk 66/1
SELECTIONS
17: Butlers Cabin, Age 9, Weight 10-13
The likely mount of Tony McCoy, Had been off the boil a bit since his fall in this race last year, his run at the Festival was highly encouraging and connections have always deemed him more of a spring horse, was literally Tanking when falling at Becher's (2nd circuit) in 2008 and surely would of been in the frame at least, that was off 11-3 and off 10-13 Saturday must go there with a live chance-being Stamina and ability to jump the fences assured.
18: Offshore Account, Age 9, Weight 10-13
Last seen over Fences winning a grade 1 three mile novice chase at the Punchestown festival, only outing since running a cracker over hurdles on his comeback.
Stamina should be no problem being from a family of fines stayer, Half brother to "Distant Thunder " "Fork Lighting" and the classy "The Listener".
23: L'ami, Age 10, Weight 10-11
Nearly beat Kauto Star at Newbury a few years ago but been dissapointing in the last two renewals of this race, appeared not to get home when 10th(2007) and fell at the second last year, However the switch to Edna Bolgers yard and cross country chases has worked miracles and with the horses confidence now back could run a big race here.
29: Darkness, Age 10, Weight 10-9
Former smart novice staying chaser who has had 3 runs since 2 1/2 years off through injury, won last time-Darkness is a gutsy galloper but his jumping is sure to let him down on Saturday.
31: Rambling Minster, Age 11, Weight 10-9
First try at this race at the grand age of 11, but clearly better than ever this year, winning at Cheltenham New years day,then the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock, Good Jumper and Stays well, only slight concern if dry, is best efforts have been on a easier surface.
32: Southern Vic, Age 10, Weight 10-9
Easy to oppose, Good solid performer in Ireland but hasnt won for nearly 3 years, just raced once outside of Ireland and that was Aintree in November-pulled up that day so hardly inspires confidence in the National.
33: Kilbeggan Blade, Age 10, Weight 10-7
Another first timer at the race, good jumper, stays well-dual winner of Sandown Marathon Chase(3M 5F) Better with cut but has gone on faster surfaces.
34: Brooklyn Brownie, Age 10, Weight 10-6
Has experience over the fences being runner up in Grand Sefton in November, that was a hard race under testing conditions but stayed on really well that day, Better ground will sort on Saturday and having a winning prep run a few weeks ago can only be a plus.
CONCLUSION.
Well with all the trends anyone of the above 8 could win but Im siding with "Butlers Cabin", the way he travelled in this race last year he surely would of gone close at the business end bar the fall. Has won an Irish National so we know he stays and jumps well(last years fall apart) best performance of current season at Cheltenham will hopefully bring him on and I think Tony McCoy has a real chance of getting that elusive first National winner.
FULL RESULT 04/04/091 Mon Mome 100-1
2 Comply Or Die 14-1
3 My Will 8-1
4 State of Play 14-1
Butlers Cabin finished 7th at 7/1