START OF THE FLAT AND DUBAI.-
26/03/2009
Its the Dubai World Cup on Saturday and I have to tip up Asiatic Boy 6 times course winner and will never get a better opportunity to win this race and even more fitting giving the last time will be run Nad Al Sheba.
Was destroyed last year by Curlin but nothing of his calibre this year...Albertus Maximus is a danger being a breeders cup mile(dirt) winner-but I think this has to be Asiastic Boys big chance and was impressed with his performance last time out.
In the Classic I like Purple Moon-his run last time will have put him spot on for this, hopefully will get a truely run race as that will play to his undoubted stamina abundence and im hoping for a good show.
So Selections are
Nad Al Sheba Sat 28th
4.40 Purple Moon
5.30 Asiatic Boy
Lincoln Selection.
Without a doubt a very hard race to make a confident selection from-you have the draw,ground and fitness levels all to take into factor.
Plain and simply I would not take 4/1-3/1 on the favourite EXPRESSO STAR Im prepared to let it win at that price so my selection wasnt too hard actually-I was looking for a consistent individual-one whos had a recent outing-will handle any ground.
So Blythe Knight 25/1..Previous winner and 2nd last year from stall 3-drawn 6 this year
and with the favourite in 9 has to be a good draw, has had a pipe opener a Kempton recently so will be spot on for this and Frederik Tylicki taking off 5lbs can only be a plus so 25/1 for me looks a good each way bet.Some bookmakers will be going 5 places and I just cant see him being out of the five.
Brocklesby Breakdown and Selection..
The Flat season is back upon us and being a Flat man myself I can't wait, I always been a keen follower of early two year olds-my moto has always been to follow the top 5/6 finishers in the Broklesby as they usually will win within the first 2/3 weeks of the season-a Broklesby winner understandably needs to be an early type-the harsh reality is these are not future superstars on show tommorow only 4 of the last 10 Winners of the race have never won again/since including last years winner "Sally's Dilemma" who is now plying her trade in claimers, the previous years winner "Mister Hardy" followed up with a Novice Stakes win before then failing to get on the score sheet until 16 races later(august 2008), The other recent winners and records(after the Broklesby are below).
Brocklesby Winners 2003-2006.
2006-Spoof Master 1 Win from 33 Races
2005-Phantom Whisper 5 from 36
2004-Next Time Around 0 from 7
2003-Red Power 1 from 5.
So with this information what do you look for in a winner?..Im going to evaluate the pedigrees of the top 6 in the forcast betting and am looking for "early types" IE: alot of speed in the pedigree, Family history of winning 2yos and even more so first time winners.
SWILLY FERRY-Colt
Cost £58,000, First racing foal of Irish trained Dam who was just a maiden winner at 3.Career best was 7th in Queen Mary(Royal Ascot) won by the classy Queens Logic.
COULD IT BE MAGIC-Colt.
Cost just £6,000, 2nd foal-Half brother to a twice raced maiden. Dam just a maiden winner at 3 over 10 furlongs but half sister to the smart "MONS" first time out winner at two and Royal Lodge winner.
WHIPPERS LOVE-Colt.
Cost 32,000 Guineas, First foal. Dam just one handicap win at 3 but half sister to smart juvenile "DOBBY ROAD" group 3 winner at two and placed in Grand Criterium behind "ROCK OF GIBRALTAR".
CHICITA BANANA-Filly
Cost 60,000 Guineas, First racing foal. Dam just mile maiden winner at 3 but half sister to smart MISS CAERLEONA(US RACED).
ARCHERS ROAD-Colt
Cost 12,000 Euro purchase, First foal. Dam unraced, but related to numerous winners including two year old mile winner and 3yo Group 1 winner "RANSOM O'WAR"
BOND TOGETHER-Gelding
Cost £10,000, 6th Racing Foal, 4/5 previous siblings all won at two-1 being first time out. Dam, twice winner at Two including on debut.
TRADE SECRET-Colt
Cost not available, 7th Foal, only 1/6 sibling won being "ORO VERDE" maiden winner at 2 beating the smart "MAJESTIC MISSILE". Dam triple winner at 2 including on debut and from prolific winning family.
CONCLUSION.
From all the information ive researched its not easy to make a selection-purely on breeding and also the jockey booking im going to take a gamble with Trade Secret..the dam won her first 3 races as a juvenile-has produced "Oro Verde" who was also sharp at two and the booking of Alan Munro for me is significant.
I will put BOND TOGETHER up aswell with the selection-comes from a super sharp family-all bar one of his siblings won as juveniles. Dam also two year winner first time out.
what put me off a put was the fact he's Gelded already-had he still been a Colt would of been first choice.